I recently studied TE statistics for the last 50 years of the NFL. Players like Charlie Sanders, Ozzie Newsome, Kellen Winslow and Keith Jackson up to Todays stars of Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Zach Ertz. and many in between. I compared their rookie season statistics to get a rookie season average and best to try and project rookie Tight Ends.
Of the top 20 Tight ends of the last 50 years. The single best season was Keith Jackson’s rookie debut in Philadelphia in 1988. He posted a stat line of 81 receptions for 869 yards and 6 TD’s in 16 games. That translates to 12 PPR points per week as a high water mark. The Average over 50 years of these top 20 rookie seasons was Jimmy Graham’s New Orleans saints debut in 2010. He posted a stat line of 31 receptions for 356 yards and 5 TD’s in15 games for 6 PPR points per week.
2019 #9 overall pick in the NFL draft TJ Hockenson averaged 9 points per week in 12 games in 2019.
Based on this information, I find it very hard to believe that 2021 Rookie first rounder Kyle Pitts in Atlanta can live up to his current number 62 overall fantasy ranking with an Average Draft Position of 53 in the 6th round of 2021 Fantasy drafts.
Now Kyle is one hell of an athlete and I have nothing against him other than cautioning you about drafting him to early. I would temper your expectations and target him late in your draft near your kicker based on 50 years of TE history.
