BASED ON Vegas consensus betting lines at 7:00 AM on 4/16/23.
M/L = MONEY LINE
ATS= AGAINST THE SPREAD FOR 2022-23 SEASON
OVER% IS PERCENTAGE OF GAMES FINISHED FOR 2022-23 SEASON
UNDER% IS PERCENTAGE OF GAMES FINISHED UNDER FOR 2022-23 SEASON
WIN% IS THE CALCULATED WIN PERCENTAGE FROM THE VEGAS MONEY LINES.
DIFFERENCES ARE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VEGAS LINES AND OUR LINES FROM THE PICK.
POSSIBLES BETS ARE BETS THAT FIT RANKED IN ORDER OF LIKELYHOOD.
***NBR: NO BET RECOMMENDED***
BET GRADING SCALE:
(5*) 70%+ LIKELYHOOD
(4*) 60.0 TO 69.9% LIKELYHOOD
(3*) 55.0 TO 59.9% LIKELYHOOD
(2*) 50.0 TO 54.9% LIKELYHOOD
(1*) LESS THAN 50% LIKELYHOOD
team abbreviations: NBA team abbreviations
GAME 1
LAL(44-39) AT MEM(51-31)
M/L: LAL (+145), MEM (-175)
VEGAS LINES: , MEM -4.5, 227.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 3.5 O/U 7.5
LAL: 49% ATS, 53% OVER, 47% UNDER
MEM: 46% ATS, 46% OVER, 54% UNDER
WIN%: MEM: 60.9%
OUR PICK: 114-106 MEM
POSSIBLE BETS: MEM ON ML (-175) (60.9%) (4*) OR UNDER 227.5 (50.5%) (2*)
GAME 2
MIN (42-41) AT DEN(53-29)
M/L: MIN(+240), DEN (-300)
VEGAS LINES: DEN -7.5, 224.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 7.5 O/U 10.5
MIN: 50% ATS, 46% OVER, 54% UNDER
DEN: 54% ATS, 47% OVER, 53% UNDER
WIN%: DEN 71.8%
OUR PICK: 125-110 DEN
POSSIBLE BETS: DEN -7.5 (54%) (2*)
GAME 3
LAC (44-38) AT PHO(45-37)
M/L: LAC (+240), PHO (-300)
VEGAS LINES: PHO -7.5, 225.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 5.5 O/U 1.5
LAC: 49% ATS, 49% OVER, 51% UNDER
PHO: 53% ATS, 53% OVER, 47% UNDER
WIN%: PHO 71.8%
OUR PICK: 120-107 PHO
POSSIBLE BETS: PHO -7.5 (53%) (2*)
GAME 4
MIA (45-38) AT MIL(58-24)
M/L: MIA (+325), MIL (-400)
VEGAS LINES: MIL -9.5, 218.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 0.5 O/U 6.5
MIA: 38% ATS, 49% OVER, 51% UNDER
MIL: 57% ATS, 51% OVER, 49% UNDER
WIN%: MIL 77.3%
OUR PICK: 117-108 MIL
POSSIBLE BETS: OVER 218.5 (50.0%) (2*)
