BASED ON Vegas consensus betting lines at 7:00 AM on 4/21/23.
M/L = MONEY LINE
ATS= AGAINST THE SPREAD FOR 2022-23 SEASON
OVER% IS PERCENTAGE OF GAMES FINISHED FOR 2022-23 SEASON
UNDER% IS PERCENTAGE OF GAMES FINISHED UNDER FOR 2022-23 SEASON
WIN% IS THE CALCULATED WIN PERCENTAGE FROM THE VEGAS MONEY LINES.
DIFFERENCES ARE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VEGAS LINES AND OUR LINES FROM THE PICK.
POSSIBLES BETS ARE BETS THAT FIT RANKED IN ORDER OF LIKELYHOOD.
***NBR: NO BET RECOMMENDED***
BET GRADING SCALE:
(5*) 70%+ LIKELYHOOD
(4*) 60.0 TO 69.9% LIKELYHOOD
(3*) 55.0 TO 59.9% LIKELYHOOD
(2*) 50.0 TO 54.9% LIKELYHOOD
(1*) LESS THAN 50% LIKELYHOOD
team abbreviations: NBA team abbreviations
GAME 1
BOS(58-25) AT ATL(42-43)
BOS LEADS SERIES 2-0
M/L: BOS (-200), ATL (+165)
VEGAS LINES: , BOS -4.5, 228.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 12.5 O/U 6.5
BOS: 57% ATS, 51% OVER, 49% UNDER
ATL: 44% ATS, 55% OVER, 45% UNDER
WIN%: BOS: 63.9%
OUR PICK: 126-109 BOS
POSSIBLE BETS: BOS -4.5 (57%) (3*) OR OVER 228.5 (53%) (2*)
GAME 2
DEN (55-29) AT MIN(42-43)
DEN LEADS 2-0
M/L: DEN(-135), MIN (+110)
VEGAS LINES: DEN -2.5, 222.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 1.5 O/U 9.5
DEN: 55% ATS, 47% OVER, 53% UNDER
MIN: 49% ATS, 47% OVER, 53% UNDER
WIN%: DEN 54.7%
OUR PICK: 118-114 DEN
POSSIBLE BETS: DEN -2.5 (55.0%) (3*) OR DEN ON ML (-135) (54.7%) (2*)
GAME 3
CLE (52-32) AT NYK(48-36)
SERIES TIED 1-1
M/L: CLE(+105), NYK (-125)
VEGAS LINES: NYK -1.5, 211.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 0.5 O/U 12.5
CLE: 54% ATS, 48% OVER, 52% UNDER
NYK: 56% ATS, 52% OVER, 48% UNDER
WIN%: CLE 46.8%
OUR PICK: 113-111 CLE
POSSIBLE BETS: CLE +1.5 (54%) (2*) OR OVER 211.5 (50.0%) (2*) OR CLE ON ML (+105) (46.8%) (1*)
