BASED ON Vegas consensus betting lines at 7:00 AM on 4/22/23.
M/L = MONEY LINE
ATS= AGAINST THE SPREAD FOR 2022-23 SEASON
OVER% IS PERCENTAGE OF GAMES FINISHED FOR 2022-23 SEASON
UNDER% IS PERCENTAGE OF GAMES FINISHED UNDER FOR 2022-23 SEASON
WIN% IS THE CALCULATED WIN PERCENTAGE FROM THE VEGAS MONEY LINES.
DIFFERENCES ARE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VEGAS LINES AND OUR LINES FROM THE PICK.
POSSIBLES BETS ARE BETS THAT FIT RANKED IN ORDER OF LIKELYHOOD.
***NBR: NO BET RECOMMENDED***
BET GRADING SCALE:
(5*) 70%+ LIKELYHOOD
(4*) 60.0 TO 69.9% LIKELYHOOD
(3*) 55.0 TO 59.9% LIKELYHOOD
(2*) 50.0 TO 54.9% LIKELYHOOD
(1*) LESS THAN 50% LIKELYHOOD
team abbreviations: NBA team abbreviations
GAME 1
MEM(52-32) AT LAL(45-40)
SERIES TIED 1-1
M/L: MEM (+150), LAL (-185)
VEGAS LINES: , LAL -4.5, 221.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 0.5 O/U 13.5
MEM: 46% ATS, 46% OVER, 54% UNDER
LAL: 49% ATS, 53% OVER, 47% UNDER
WIN%: LAL: 61.9%
OUR PICK: 120-115 LAL
POSSIBLE BETS: LAL ON ML (-185) (61.9%) (4*)
GAME 2
PHI (57-28) AT BKN(45-40)
PHI LEADS 3-0
M/L: PHI(-135), BKN (+110)
VEGAS LINES: PHI -1.5, 228.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 2.5 O/U 0.5
PHI: 59% ATS, 54% OVER, 46% UNDER
BKN: 51% ATS, 45% OVER, 55% UNDER
WIN%: PHI 54.7%
OUR PICK: 116-112 PHI
POSSIBLE BETS: PHI -1.5 (59.0%) (3*) OR PHI ON ML (-135) (54.7%) (2*)
GAME 3
;PHO (47-38) AT LAC(45-40)
PHO LEADS SERIES 2-1
M/L: PHO(-350), LAC (+260)
VEGAS LINES: NYK -7.5, 225.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 4.5 O/U 3.5
PHO: 52% ATS, 54% OVER, 46% UNDER
LAC: 49% ATS, 50% OVER, 50% UNDER
WIN%: PHO 73.7%
OUR PICK: 116-113 PHO
POSSIBLE BETS: OVER 225.5 (52.0%) (2*)
GAME 4
MIL (59-25) AT MIA(46-39)
SERIES TIED 1-1
M/L: MIL(-210), MIA (+170)
VEGAS LINES: MIL -4.5, 220.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 7.5 O/U 6.5
MIL: 56% ATS, 52% OVER, 48% UNDER
MIA: 39% ATS, 50% OVER, 50% UNDER
WIN%: MIA 35.3%
OUR PICK: 115-112 MIA
POSSIBLE BETS: OVER 220.5 (51.0%) (2*) OR MIA ON ML (+170) (35.3%) (1*)
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