BASED ON Vegas consensus betting lines at 7:00 AM on 4/26/23.
M/L = MONEY LINE
ATS= AGAINST THE SPREAD FOR 2022-23 SEASON
OVER% IS PERCENTAGE OF GAMES FINISHED FOR 2022-23 SEASON
UNDER% IS PERCENTAGE OF GAMES FINISHED UNDER FOR 2022-23 SEASON
WIN% IS THE CALCULATED WIN PERCENTAGE FROM THE VEGAS MONEY LINES.
DIFFERENCES ARE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VEGAS LINES AND OUR LINES FROM THE PICK.
POSSIBLES BETS ARE BETS THAT FIT RANKED IN ORDER OF LIKELYHOOD.
***NBR: NO BET RECOMMENDED***
BET GRADING SCALE:
(5*) 70%+ LIKELYHOOD
(4*) 60.0 TO 69.9% LIKELYHOOD
(3*) 55.0 TO 59.9% LIKELYHOOD
(2*) 50.0 TO 54.9% LIKELYHOOD
(1*) LESS THAN 50% LIKELYHOOD
team abbreviations: NBA team abbreviations
GAME 1
LAL (47-40) AT MEM(52-34)
LAL LEADS SERIES 3-1
M/L: LAL(+150), MEM (-185)
VEGAS LINES: MEM -4.5, 221.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 8.5 O/U 13.5
LAL: 50% ATS, 53% OVER, 47% UNDER
MEM: 45% ATS, 46% OVER, 54% UNDER
WIN%: MEM 61.9%
OUR PICK: 124-111 MEM
POSSIBLE BETS: MEM ON ML (-185) (61.9%) (4*)
GAME 2
MIA (45-41) AT MIL(48-38)
MIA LEADS SERIES 3-1
M/L: MIA(+475), MIL (-650)
VEGAS LINES: MIL -11.5, 219.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 4.5 O/U 14.5
MIA: 40% ATS, 51% OVER, 49% UNDER
MIL: 55% ATS, 54% OVER, 46% UNDER
WIN%: MIL: 83.3%
OUR PICK: 125-109 MIL
POSSIBLE BETS: MIL -11.5 (55%) (3*) OR OVER 219.5 (52.0%) (2*)
GAME 3
GSW (46-40) AT SAC(50-36)
SERIES TIED 2-2
M/L: GSW(-125), SAC (+105)
VEGAS LINES: GSW -1.5, 234.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 10.5 O/U 4.5
GSW: 47% ATS, 55% OVER, 45% UNDER
SAC: 57% ATS, 49% OVER, 51% UNDER
WIN%: SAC: 46.8%
OUR PICK: 124-115 SAC
POSSIBLE BETS: SAC +1.5 (57.0%) (3*) OR OVER 234.5 (52.0%) (2*) OR SAC ON ML (+1055) (46.8%) (1*)
GAME 4
NYK (50-36) AT CLE(52-34)
NYK LEADS SERIES 3-1
M/L: NYK(+185), CLE (-225)
VEGAS LINES: CLE -5.5, 202.5 O/U
DIFFERENCES: SPREAD 6.5 O/U 23.5
NYK: 57% ATS, 51% OVER, 49% UNDER
CLE: 52% ATS, 47% OVER, 53% UNDER
WIN%: CLE: 66.4%
OUR PICK: 119-107 CLE
POSSIBLE BETS: CLE -5.5 (52.0%) (2*)
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