Game 4 KCC @ TEN
Vegas lines:
KCC (-220) at TEN (190)
spread KCC -4.5
Over/Under: 57.5
Genie Prediction: 30-29 TEN
line differences:
spread 5.5
O/U 1.5
ATS (AGAINST THE SPREAD): KCC 56, TEN 44%
OVER%: KCC 50%, TEN 60%
UNDER%: KCC 50%, TEN 40%
We pick TEN by 1 and the over. KCC is 56% ATS but not at -4.5. Both are good over but that is a slim margin.
Bet: Take TEN +4.5
Game 5 ATL @ MIA
Vegas lines:
ATL (-140) at MIA (120)
spread ATL -2.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Genie Prediction: 28-22 ATL
line differences:
spread 3.5
O/U 2.5
ATS (AGAINST THE SPREAD): ATL 63%, MIA 56%
OVER%: ATL 53%, MIA 55%
UNDER%: ATL 47%, MIA 45%
We pick ATL by 6 and the over, ATL IS 63% ATS.
Bet: Take ATL -2.5
Game 6 NYJ @ NEP
Vegas lines:
NYJ (260) at NEP (-320)
spread NEP -7
Over/Under: 42.5
Genie Prediction: 24-18 NEP
line differences:
spread 1.0
O/U 0.5
ATS (AGAINST THE SPREAD): NYJ 38%, NEP 84%
OVER%: NYJ 48%, NEP 40%
UNDER%: NYJ 52%, NEP 60%
We pick NEP by 6 and the under, NEP IS 84% ATS, BUT the -7 line is no help. The O/U margin is too slim.
Bet: Do not bet this game
