When selecting my sleepers, I dive deep into statistics to see who will outperform their Average draft position (ADP). For my RB’s, see below.
- Deandre Swift DET ADP 32
2020 stat line: 14 rush attempts (Att), 521 yards (yds), 4.6 average (Ave.), 8 TD’s, 46 receptions (rec), 357 yds, , 2 TD’s.
Detroit has a new head Coach, Dan Campbell (New Orleans and Offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn (LA Chargers). Based on the history of the 2 teams offenses and how they split carries along with the fact that Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson are no longer with the team. Throw in that Detroit signed Jamaal Williams and drafted Jermar Jefferson and the splits give me 153 Att. for swift at his per rush average equates to 704 yds and 11 TD’s with 42 rec, 328 yds and 2TD’s. This yields 223 PPR points or a 13.9 Ave. for 2021 on par with Antonio Gibson (ADP 17) so at his ADP 32, Swift is a sleeper this year.
2. Mike Davis ATL ADP 61
2020 stat line: (CAR)15 games, 165 At, 642 yds, 6 TD’s, 59rec, 373 yds, 2 TD’s
Atlanta’s top 2 rushers from 2020 are both gone, they signed only Davis and drafted no RB’s. He is the uncontested starter. Atlanta’s New head coach is Arthur Smith who was TEN OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR LAST SEASON AND LIKES TO RUN THE BALL (SEE D. Henry). with the lions share of the running duties going to Davis and his target share history, I see a 2021 stat line as follows:
16 games, 316 Att, 1232 yds, 12 TD’s, 72 rec, 452 yds, 2 TD’s. yielding 324 PPR points or 20.3 per week Ave. on par with Aaron Jones (ADP 10) so at ADP 61, Mike Davis is definitely a sleeper.
3. Darrell Henderson LAR ADP 70
Cam Akers the presumed starter for the Rams tore his Achilles in the offseason and will not play at ll. The other Rams top 3 rusher from 2020, Malcolm Brown, left as a free gent. This leaves Darrel Henderson as the lead guy with no real competition. Just in increased workload alone as the lead guy, Henderson projects to a 2021 stat line as follows:
16 games, 338 Att, 1487 yds, 10 TD’s, 17 rec, 168 yds, 1 TD yielding 249 PPR points or 15.6 Ave. on par with Chris Carson (ADP 33) Making his ADP 70 a sleeper.
4. Trey Sermon SFF AD 96
A rookie for San Francesco this year from Ohio State. San Fran will try to be balanced offensively while bringing along a rookie QB and that means a nice increase in rush opportunities. About a 15% increase on 2020 based on my calculations. Last years top 3 rushers are Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mohstert and Jerrick McKinnon. Mckinnon left in fee agency and Mohstert has missed over 30% of the games the last 3 years. I see Mohstert’s role diminishing to that of a 3rd down scat back and Wilson assuming the backup role to Sermon. Giving Sermon the Rush share lead at 208 Att. We can extrapolate this to the following 2021 stat line:
16 games, 208 Att, 1326 yds, 7 TD’s, 24 rec, 190 yds, 6 TD’s yielding 254 PPR points or 15.9 per week Ave. on par with Chris Carson (ADP 33) makin his ADP 96 a definite sleeper.