Again, I take a deep dive into the statistics to determine who can surpass their Average Draft Position (ADP) to be a sleeper this season at the TE position.
- Irv Smith Jr. MIN ADP 148
Irv Smith had more targets in 2020 than Kyle Rudolph and Rudolph is now gone, I see his 37 targets going directly to Smith. That makes Smith’s 2021 stat line as follows: 16 games, 90 Tgt, 63 rec, 769 yards, 6 TD’s good for 176 PPR points or 11 per week Ave. This average is on par with TJ Hockenson at his ADP 65 making Smith a sleeper at ADP 148.
2. Adam Trautman NOS ADP 170
Trautman was the number 2 TE to Jared Cook last year, Cook is no longer their and neither is #3 TE Josh Hill freeing up 70 available pass targets. I see Trautman being the recipient of these 70 targets this year leading to a 2021 stat line as follows:
16games, 86 Tgt, 81 rec, 923 yards, 5 TD’s good for 203 PPR points or 12.7 per week Ave. on par with Mark Andrews of Baltimore and his ADP 55 making Trautman’s ADP 170 a sleeper.
3. Anthony Firkser TE ADP 177
Firkser was the second leading target getter among TE’s to Jonnu Smith in 2020. Smith left for New England leaving Firkser the leader at TE. Firkser should get a large portion of, but not all of Jonnu Smith’s 65targets. Based on target share I give him 27 of the 65 leading to a 2021 stat line as follows:
16 games, 80 Tgt, 59 rec, 585 yards, 2 TD’s good for 130 PPR points or 8.1 per week Ave. on par with Irv Smith’s ADP 148. Trautman’s ADP 177 and ADP 148 value make him a sleeper.
4. Blake Jarwin DAL ADP 245
Jarwin was injured in 2020 and missed the season with an ACL tear. In his place Dalton Schultz received 89 targets and led Dallas TE’s. In 2019, Jarwin out targeted Schultz 41-2 and was far more explosive. I see both TE playing a role in Dallas in 2021, but Schultz role willbe reduced to allow Jarwin to shine. I give Jarwin the following 2021 stat line:
16 games, 70 Tgt, 47 rec, 564 yards, 7 TD’s good for 145 PPR points or 9.1 per week Ave. on par with Rob Gronkowski ADP 103. This makes Jarwin’s ADP 245 a sleeper.