- CeeDee Lamb DAL ADP of 38 (Fantasy Pros)
2020 Stats: 5 games 74 Rec on 111 Targets (Tgt) for 934 yards 12.6 Ave and 5 TD 197 PPR points, 12 per week Ave.
In 2020 he was a top 5 NFL receiver as a rookie through week 5 until Dak Prescott was injured. Dak average 44 attempts per game to Andy Dalton’s 30. So, a full season of DAK should lead to far more attempts in 2021 to the 639 they had in 2020 and at Lamb’s rookie 17.4% target share that leads to 122 targets in 2021. At his same catch rate of 66.6% that is 81 receptions. I give him a base line of
81 rec on 122 targets for 1021 yards and 6 Td’s (219 PPR pts) with a ceiling of:
93 rec on 128 targets for 1386 yards and 7 Td’s. (274 PPR pts)
That equates to a range of 14-18 PPR pts per week in the same range as Justin Jefferson and DK Metcalf last season. Jefferson has an ADP of 24 and Metcalf 18 this year so Lamb at 38 is a sleeper.
- Laviska Shenault JAX ADP of 158 (Fantasy Pros)
2020 Stats: 14 games 58 rec on 79 Tgt for 650 yards and 5 TD’s and 18 rushes for 91 yards and 0 TD’s. Good for 166 PPR points or 11.9 per week Ave.
In his 2020 rookie season he was 3rd on the team in targets with Gardner Minshew as his QB. JAX drafted Trevor Lawrence 1st overall to be the QB and hired former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer to coach them. At Ohio State Meyer was at 60/40 run heavy on offense. He will need to be closer to 50/50 in the NFL. If not higher as they will be playing from behind a lot. In 2020 JAX had 616 pass attempts and 337 rush attempts. This will be closer to 475 pass/475 rush this year.
These numbers extrapolate to Shenault having the following stat line in 2021.
Receiving: 51 Rec on 70 Tgt for 576 yards and 5 TD’s.
Rushing: 30 rushes, 150 yards and 0 TD’s
This equates to 140 PPR points, lower than 2020, but with DJ Chark’s injury history, Shenault is getting in more work in camp with Lawrence to build their chemistry. On top of that Shenault is an explosive gadget player that Meyer loves in his offense. Both of these facts and a year of improvement should give shenault a boost to around 200 PPR points this season the same area as Tee Higgins (ADP 28) and Tyler Boyd (ADP 36) so at a late pick of 158, Shenault is a sleeper.
- Michael Pittman IND AADP 110 per fantasy Pros
2020 stats: 16 games, 40 rec on 61 targets, 65.5% catch, 629 yards, 1 TD’s for 109 PPR points.
Pittman had a 7.2% target share in 2020, but with TY Hilton’s average regression and Trey Burton Leaving. I see Pittman moving up to Number 1 or 2 on Target share in 2021 and putting up a stat line as follows: 16 games, 84 rec on 128 Tgt for 1058 yards and 3 Td’s. Good for 208 PPR points, putting him in the same category as Jarvis Landry (ADP 33) or Sterling Shepard (ADP 43) making him a sleeper at ADP 110.
- Brandon Aiyuk SFF ADP 69 (Fantasy Pros)
2020 stats: 12 games, 60 rec on 96 targets for 748 yards and 5 TD’s (165 PPR points)
Aiyuk was San Francisco’s leading receiver last year but hear me out. Last year he had 3 different QB and the offense averaged 39 targets a game. With Jimmy G healthy and Newly Drafted Trey Lance in the fold I expect to a modest increase in targets to 624 total. At Aiyuk’s target share of this gives him 105 targets in 2021. His catch rate yields 88 rec and 1097 yards for 8 TD’s. That is 246 PPR points in 2021. That is good for 15.4 PPR points per week Ave., the same as Mike Evans (ADP 36) thus making his ADP 69 a sleeper.